New set, new number: 1705
Aether Revolt came out on Friday and I again picked up my pre-order. Same order was done, but as we have been talking about, with the new baby I am not sure I am going to be able to keep up with the amount I have been buying. We will wait and see how it goes.
I was able to pick up 3 Pre-Release decks along with my order, so that was an added little bonus with this set. Normally I don't get any pre-release decks because I don't play in pre-release.
So here is what all the glory looks like!
That is the standard order of 10 Booster boxes, 4 Bundles, and this time 3 Pre-Release packs.
Now, I still do the standard openings of 8 Booster boxes, and 3 Bundles, but I did open all 3 Pre-Release packs. I don't think I will buy the Pre-Release packs again and really only got the bug to get them because my friend picked one up and got an Invention out of it, so I thought they might have had a better chance to get an Invention. FAIL!
I was able to get a couple of Inventions with this opening.
Not great, but not terrible. I really like the Black Vise, just cause I am a 90's player and love those old cards.
Here are all the Foil cards, the thing to point out here is I did get Planar Bridge and Paradox Engine in Foil! I also did pull a Foil Fatal Push, which was a great bonus!
Here are all the Mythic Rares. Aetherwind Basker and Lightning Runner were my only trade bait I got out of this opening, and I only need 3 Mythic Rares to get my play sets. As openings go, this was a very good one. Only 2 extra's and only needing 3 to complete the sets was great!
I would like to add that I did get 4 Mythics in the first Bundle I opened. I had to triple check everything because I was in a bit of a shock that happened.
These are the good pulled cards from the Pre-Release packs I got. The Torrential Gearhulk was a great pull, and I am keeping an eye out for any of these I can get. I needed the Angel for the collection, and just threw the foil in there, but I still hate them. I really think that Torrential Gearhulk is going to be like Snapcaster Mage. There is a high casting cost, but that Instant for free in the graveyard is priceless.
And all the Commons/Uncommons fit nicely into a 3200 count BCW.
Now I did a little test with this opening. Considering the other posts I had about the new baby, I wanted to know how much I would actually get from just opening 4 Boosters and 3 Bundles. From list prices, it showed I was still going to need around $266 just to get the cards that I was missing. This did not include the Planeswalker deck cards that I need, and it is all based on release weekend prices. Considering that, I would be able to pick up what I needed after rotation for less than $100, and that is a complete guess. With those numbers I am hoping my plan works.
Now with the new plan, I am looking at just getting cards that I need and try and cut out the bulk. I am going to be missing out of trading fodder that I currently get. Currently I am seeing $282 worth of trading fodder. If I were to only open 4 boxes, I would be missing all that extra inventory. I know I brought up the fact that I am almost done with my collecting, and I would not need the fodder in the future, but I wanted to go through it here.
4 Booster Boxes: $360
Trading Fodder: $282
Missing Cards: $266
(282 + 266) - 360 = $188
So what the hell do I mean with all these numbers?
- Trading fodder is what I pulled from the 4 extra boxes.
- Missing Cards are the list release weekend prices for the cards I would need to buy when only opening 4 booster boxes.
- Booster boxes is the cost I would need to spend on pre-order.
You can say I am trying to talk myself into ditching the new plan, and sticking with the old plan.
So with the extra $360 dollars I spent with my order, and opening 4 more boxes of boosters, I saved myself from having to spend $266 on cards I still need and I also got $282 of cards that I can trade away at a future date. You can see my math is really theoretical here. I am taking release weekend prices of the cards that I got for trade bait, and adding the cost of what I would have had to spend at release weekend prices to get my play sets, then taking out the $360 worth of booster boxes I could have got, and I end up with an extra $188. So really, that means I would be $188 in the green basing it all on release weekend pricing.
Now, if you look at the $282 of the small set and compare it to the other trading fodder that I have from older sets and compare them, we can see what that equates to after time.
Aether Revolt: $273 / 135
Eldritch Moon: $120 / 106
Oath of the Gatewatch: $45 / 53
Fate Reforged: $35 / 83
Born of the Gods: $45 / 123
Dragon Maze: $56 / 61
Dark Ascension: $19 / 40
New Phyrexia: $244 / 61
Aether, Eldritch, and Oath are still in Standard. I also opened the same amount in all those sets, but you can see that I have been pretty active with Oath of the Gatewatch in trading. But considering that those sets are still in Standard the pricing pushes this picture into the nice category, which in reality it shouldn't be so rosey.
There is a fairly large drop off with Fate, Born, and Dragon. And in seeing those numbers it does almost seem better to buy low amounts of sealed product, fill out what I am looking for when rotation comes, and then pick up trading fodder here and there that will pull in what I need rather than hope for pops in value. The steep decline in price / inventory is what is shocking. After rotation the value of those cards goes to nothing and now you are playing the long game, hoping that there is a spike in value with some deck in the future.
I know I have Dark Ascension and New Phyrexia in there, but those sets were outside of my plan of buying sealed product, and those pre-orders were not nearly the amount that I have been doing, and plan to move away from. The low price of Dark Ascension shows how much of speculation I have not done with that set because there is a lack of value, and New Phyrexia shows that I did a lot more speculation with those cards because I saw value.
Example: Surgical Extraction
- I purchased 20 of those single rares for around $1.50 each on a large eBay order.
- My perception of the card was that it had massive growth value within the game because of the Phyrexian mana cost at Instant speeds to do a wonderful ability for Black.
- I considered this a Black standard in any Modern / Legacy deck.
This was only 1 of my speculations that actually hit, and I am waiting for some others to come true, but just like the stock market, you have some winners and losers.
Looking at this and seeing the prices that are there for the cards that I have, it is almost glaring to keep spending less on cracking packs and then just buy what I need. Then purchase cards for trade bait straight up, and not crack packs for it.
I do understand that I could be showing the leftover cards from a set because I traded all the good trade bait away, and that is why the numbers are so low on the card count. But that still does not justify the overspend to get bulk that might not appreciate in value, and the extra spend on bulk.
This is even more fuel to just buy 6 boxes, open 4 of them for the commons / uncommons and what rares I can get, and then fill everything else out with trades or buys after rotation. Considering I like to pick and choose what to buy during standard, it does make more sense to stick with the plan and see how it goes. If anything I might just open 2 boxes play pauper and buy what I need for EDH.
I am also not against picking up the Bundle pack here and there to get some trading fodder and to open packs, but I am hoping that this will open up some more budget to get things that I want to keep for the long term while saving up to finish up the playsets after rotation.
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