Dominaria and the new budgeting process!

4 Boosters
2 Bundles
2 Planeswalker Deck

That is all I am going to be picking up on pre-order.  I am more than likely just going to be opening the 4 Booster boxes, and 1 Bundle.  That is it.

Now!

I do plan on picking up more sealed boxes in a year or two because it is a Standard set and WotC will continue to print the hell out of it.  And yes, it is a buy that I will be preforming because I really think this set will be worth more in the later years.

Eldritch Moon
Kaladesh
Aether Revolt
Ixalan

These are all the sets I consider really great sets.  I have picked up more of these sealed boxes along the way because I think these sets will show a lot more value after the printing is done.  Eldritch Moon just had a ton of Modern staples.  Then Kaladesh and Aether Revolt was all about the Energy.  Ixalan I consider Urza's Saga 2.0 with those flip lands.

With Dominaria I see some of the same types of value.  The Saga's, Legendary cards, the new Mox, and just value I see in the set.  I personally see a lot of really good Modern and EDH cards.  I could really care less about Standard since it is just a 2 year return, but for Modern and EDH I see some really good cards for the long haul.  And in all the slots too - Common, Uncommon, Rare, Mythic Rare have all some really good cards.  I am not going to go through all the cards I think have value, just because I am not a set review Blog, but I did want to put it out there that I do see a lot of value in this specific set.

You could sit back and ask "what do you consider a bad set, and how do you get to that point?"

Amonkhet in my eyes was a bad set along with Hour of Devastation.  After rotation I do not see many of the cards doing anything.  Maybe after the 5 year timeline the cards will go up based on availability, but for the most part I do not see a lot of value from the set.

Another example is Shadows Over Innistrad.  While I really like Eldritch Moon, I felt that SOI did not have much value in the set.  There was not a lot that was popping out for playable cards.  Some set might get released later that will cause a card in the set to spike, but for the most part I just could not find much in the set.

How do you expect to buy new sets"

For the most part, I have found that there is no real big need to pick up sealed product on pre-order.  Now with the ability to pickup cases at $79.99 per box from Rudy and Alpha Investments, that $90 price point from LGS's is not such a big deal and I can take my time in buying more product on release.  I can only assume that my LGS will like it better that I buy singles from them instead of sealed product since they get to do such a mark up on singles they buy from other players, and the margin from selling sealed product it not worth it.

It is like this, I can pick up what I want to open on Pre-order and I will be set with the collection needs.  Then I can buy all the singles I need from the LGS to fill out my playsets.  The stores are going to like that more because of the margin they make on singles, and I would assume they would prefer me to pick up singles from them rather than buying a sealed booster box and only make like $20.00 per box.

Then I can just keep picking up boxes from Rudy at those price points, and keep those sealed boxes around if I want and not opening up so much sealed product.  Not only is it becoming difficult storing all those cards, but it is also not owning so many cards!  With buy listing and CardSphere I am trying to make my collection of bulk smaller, and opening up so much sealed product is just becoming to painful.

I can also put some budget toward picking up collections.  With less bulk on booster boxes I am opening, I can really pick up some bulk for cheap when buying collections.  I highly doubt I will do more collection buying, but it is an option.

I do have to say that with Rudy and CardSphere, it is a lot easier to get what I need and to be more surgical with my purchases.  I can only dream of the day where I am all caught up with my sealed product in the collection, and I can really concentrate on picking up things that will increase the collection value.

So really with Dominaria I am planning on going into "spend as little as I can" mode.  I used to just pick up 4 booster boxes when I got back into MTG, and that always was a good number for bulk and getting Common / Uncommon playsets.  Picking up sealed booster boxes as the year goes on, just to get sets I see more value in.  I do plan on picking up a lot more of Dominaria, just not so much at release.

I have noticed that with the releases of these latest sets, it has been touch and go with value.  I cannot just shotgun the set and pick up more than I need.  I have to be more careful with my buys so I can save more money for the sets that are worth keeping around.  My hope is that picking up my playsets will not cost too much and I can do it in this cost effective manner.

I just think that this is going to be a very good set in the long run, and I am planning on investing in this set a bit.

Help me get my CS badges for referrals!
https://www.cardsphere.com/ref/711/e4031f


More to come!  Happy Wed!

Panic Mode all around...

Fuck you Wizards of the Coast, and Fuck you Hasbro!


The only thing that makes me have any comfort with all the money I use to invest in this hobby is that I have Hasbro stock and invest in the company itself.

Commander 2017 was just released in Aug.
Ixalan is getting released in Sept.
Iconic Masters is getting released in Nov.
Explorers of Ixalan is also coming in Nov.
FTV: Transform is also coming in Nov.
Oh yeah and the new Duel Deck is also coming in Nov.
Unstable is coming in Dec.

Rivals of Ixalan is then coming in Jan.
Master 25 then in Mar.
Dominaria is then coming in Apr.

So let's just hit up the end of this year.

XLN: $800
IMA: $1100
Explore: $60
FTV: $40
DD: $40
UN3: $360 (I hope)

So really I am looking for close to $1500 more than I was expecting to spend this year.  This all following up on last year, where I spent well above my budget because of the Conspiracy and 2 Master sets within the year, along with those Masterpiece sets.

So now what I am expecting to spend a year, if the trends keep up with what we are seeing.
3 expansion sets
1 core set
2 master sets
1 commander set
1 anthology set
2 duel decks
1 FTV
1 set of something

The only good thing is that there is no longer Masterpiece sets.  Again, there are no more Masterpiece sets.  That is close to $6000 in list prices that is really going to free up.  Following along with Phase 1 48 cards need, and Phase 2 122 cards needed, all totaling up to $283 for everything I need, I am not too worried about what might be happening.

Basically they are freeing up $6000 worth of Masterpiece cards and adding an additional $1100 for another Master set.

But the trend does look like it is 4 sets, 2 master sets, 2 duel decks, 4 commander decks, 1 FTV, and 1 Anthology.

$800*4 = $3200 (Expansion / Core)
$1100*2 = $2200 (Master)
$360*1 = $360 (Something Set)
$35*8 = $280 (Commander Decks)
$150*2 = $150 (Anthology)
$35*2 = $70 (Duel Decks)
$40*2 = $80 (FTV)

This totals up to $6340 a year.

So in reality this was ($6340 - $1100) + $6000 = $11,240.

Now I did not go out and buy up all the Masterpiece cards all at once, but those prices were all going toward my bottom line if I was going to be able to get all the cards I needed.

Now my Phase 3 cards for the ABU sets are going up a lot by speculators, and I am really not sure I am going to be able to pick up those at all, but it is a nice long term goal.  Considering that I only need 24 Beta cards, and 50 Unlimited cards, I will keep searching for those cards as I go to LGS's.

Yeah, Phase 4 with all the booster boxes can just go fuck itself...

All in all, with the removal of the Masterpiece sets, I feel like the additional Masters sets should be ok for now, I just need to keep up with only collecting a single card in those sets since they are all reprints.  Also, since 1 of the Expansion set is turning to a Core set again, we might go with 1 single set, but playsets for all the 1st print cards.

I really need to keep speculating down to a minimum, focusing on Phase 4 with the booster boxes. And trying to pick up cards for the trade binder, but concentrate on what I really need.  Because with having everything I need, I really don't need a trade binder?  Let's wait and see how that goes.

Balls...

So yeah...

Card Kingdom!  Really starting to like this site.  As I do more business with these guys, maybe I will do a post on them.

Yup, broke down and started my journey into picking up sealed product for the collection.  These purchases will be from 1-2 boxes a year unless I get some crazy bonus at work, or some massive gain on one of my investments.  The way it is working, I have a specific savings account just for these purchases.  I put money into that account every month and save up enough money for a buy.  Once I get a lump sum of cash in the account I will go out and buy something.  With that being said, it is not the same as the yearly budget spend.

I spoke about this in one of my more recent posts.  I have my yearly spend for new product, my singles purchase, and my sealed product bucket.  I have since then split off my sealed product from my yearly spend and singles purchase budget.  How it works is I put money into that bucket every month and I also put any credit card rewards into that bucket.  That is where I will spend out of to pick up any sealed product I need for my collection.  This is not for speculation, but for actual collection sealed product.  None of this product will ever get opened, and it is just for the collection.

I also will not go into debt for any of these purchases.  It would be completely stupid to have to pay interest on these types of purchases, that would only increase the cost basis of anything I bought like that.  It is something I want for the collection, but there is no need to go into debt to get them.  I will not buy any large purchase with debt.  I will use a credit card to buy it, but I will pay that card off within the next billing cycle.  It took me forever to get out of debt, and I don't plan on paying a bunch of interest for no good reason.

Think of it like this, why would you pay a credit card company to get something here and now, and pay every month to pay it down?  Why don't you just save every month and then buy what you can afford when you have enough cash to do so?  That way the credit card company does not own you, and you get to own your cards.

Now that I have made this purchase I will keep putting more money into that account to increase the balance.  Once this purchase has been recouped I will then look to make another purchase.  These purchases will more than likely be highest price to lowest.  That way I can get the more valued sealed boxes out of the way.  Once I start getting to the $200-$300 booster box range, then I think I will be able to pick up the speed of buying.

I also want to point out, I never spend all the cash in my reserve account.  This is for the purpose of running into a great deal and needing the equity to do a buy on a moment's notice.  For instance, buying a collection.  Normally people selling collections are in rush, and have a big desire to cash out quick.  This is always a buying opportunity for me, and ends up with the most gain.

So yeah, I am not expecting to pick up another sealed booster box for the collection until next year.

Please use this great reference for authenticity.
YouTube: Alpha Investments - "MTG: Counterfeiting / Re-Sealing Boxes - Nasty Side of Investing"


Next...

So watched this video about owning a gaming store and I was like WTF!

YouTube: Magic: the Gathering - "What's in Store: Owning Your Own Local Game Store"

That sounds like Lodestone Coffee and Games would be near my house!  So big thanks to Maria from Magic the Amateuring for bringing this store's existence to my attention.  I decided to head up there and see what it was like.  After I go up there more, I might post something here for a LGS review.  But yeah, first glance it was a really cool place.

But as you can see, I picked up some Masterpiece Inventions and Masterpiece Invocations for the collection.

And this...

Why this?  Why not...  I am not much of a Promo guy, but it is very rare that I do see something like this in a LGS that I really would want.  They did have a couple other things that I am interested in, so I might head up there again later today to see if I can grab some more stuff.

And since I am in the market for a new LGS, this might be a great place to go from now on.

Edit:
Was able to get up there again and pick up some Unlimited Dual Lands.  Had to come home to get my Dual Lands and a loupe to make sure they were real.

Personal Control

So far the collecting is moving right along.  I am really happy with only picking up 6 booster boxes and opening up 4 of them with the 3 Bundles.  It is cutting down my bulk and I am not really that concerned with the Standard cards I am missing.  That $369.03 amount that I still need for my full playset just keeps getting lower every week, and it also includes the Planeswalker deck cards I need. So really the total is closer to $300.00.

I am going to keep watching that price as we move into newer sets, and will update as the results come in, but I am pretty happy with holding off on opening so much this go around.

I am still considering where to buy sealed product as I just keep getting a bad feeling from the LGS I currently buy from.  They seem to be cutting services more and more.  When I do go and put in an online order for instore pickup, there is always something wrong with their inventory.  Not that it is a bad thing, but I really get the feeling that they are a playing store more than anything, and are not really concentrating on the online sales.

With that being said, I do know I can get all the new product, but I just don't know who is running the ship anymore over there, and I think they are just in float mode with no real plans to increase the business.  And from what I can tell they are not really doing buys with much forethought.  It looks like they just pick up anything that comes into the store, collecting only a small percentage for the cards they are picking up, and then turning around to sell the cards at TGC Mid.

This of course is great for me and picking up speculations, but how long can I really expect the store to stick around.  If they really put thought to it, they would have a buy list, and buy cards from that list based on demand, and not just shotgun it.

Which comes to the topic I really wanted to talk about.  Speculations...

I have put into play my pickups for all the new product, and it seems to be working.  Masterpieces are coming down in price, and I am pretty sure that is a trend that will continue moving forward.  The "new hotness" feel for them has worn and players are now just treating them like foils.  This makes it a lot easier to shop for and picking up.  Even the older Masterpiece cards keep coming down in price.  Now that BFZ block is no longer printed I am keeping a watchful eye on those prices since the supply has been cut off.

With only 724 more cards in the count, I can actually look to pick up cards that I think will increase after 5 years.  So far I have been hit or miss on them, but the ones I hit on are fairly large gainers. I know I know, I have said that I won't be speculating much at all while I try and get the 724 down to 0, but the prices on some of these cards are just too good to pass up.  Think about it, if I did not pick up all those Dual lands back in 1996 for $10 a pop, then I would be very behind the collection 8 ball right now.

So really, picking up the rares that I think will pop later is the only real way I can find value in the cards that I collect.  Then I can turn those gains into picking up the Standard cards that I no longer crack packs for.  So I pick up a Mythic Rare for $.95 and in 5 years it pops to $5.00.  I can then trade that $5.00 for a bunch of newly rotated cards at $.95, in essence doing a five banger gain on cards that I need.  Saving me money in the long run to pick up those Masterpiece sets, where the real value is.

The best example I can give for that is New Phyrexia - Surgical Extraction.

I picked up 15 of them for $6.45 back in 2014.  The current price on those are $20.36 each.  That is 3 banger.  That means it has increased over 300% for me.  So I gained 100% of my money 3 times. Now I have those sitting up on my deckbox tradelist, just waiting for folks to try and pick them up.

The thing that I am seeing now is that my wishlist only has the 700+ cards I am looking for the collection.  I have not added any of the Standard cards that I still need.  I am pretty sure, once I add those Standard cards on my wishlist I would get a lot of trade requests because everyone wants to pick-up the value of the overpriced standard market.  So really, no good trader would want to trade for Standard cards while they are in Standard because of the inflated prices.

With that I have also been tracking the speculation cards and what my cost basis is on those.  That way I can see if the trade is going to be more to my favor, and I can also cut deals based on what my cost basis is.  It just give me more leverage when doing trades.

Also to that point, when I do pick up a large sum of speculation cards and post them on Deckbox, I only post one available for trade.  That way if someone wanted to pick up more than one because there was a price spike on TCG Player, I can control the loss of someone else speculating on cards. With Deckbox there is about a 2 day delay in price increases.  This is cause TCG Player sees the buyouts because that is the site the cards are getting bought out from.  Deckbox prices only adjust based on the "Traders" and "Sellers" on that site, so they are normally a little late to update their prices.  And it gives me the opportunity to control how many of the speculated cards are removed from my inventory, and I don't lose out to other people that have the same ideas that I have, and trying and pick up cards that I am already picking up.

So now that I have setup the new release budget, and what I am thinking about with speculation, the third leg will always be sealed product.  This third leg is always older sealed product because we are always picking up newer product at the pre-order prices.  I have been keeping a list of older booster boxes and fat packs that I want to pick up.  At some point I hope to get another set of the From the Vault series since I opened the ones I had to play with, and I also need to get another Planechase 2012 because I opened that one when I got it.  That was about the time I had came back to Magic and really had no idea what I was doing.

So as it sits right now, 50% of the yearly budget is spent on all new product.  That leaves 50% of my MTG money to spend on speculation and older sealed product.  And this is where the title of the blog finally comes into play.  In the past I have gone overboard with speculation, and over bought singles that I thought might have some promise to gain in the future.  I have also spent that speculation money at the wrong time, and was picking up cards right before rotation.

Example: Sphinx's Revelation around $13 a piece.

My thought on this card was: Instant + Gain Life + Draw Cards = Winner.  I still think I will be right, but it should have been about 1 year after rotation, and not while it was going out of rotation.

It is personal control that I need to use in my purchases.  I do think that this budget is helping in that, by putting restrictions on my purchasing power, and setting my limits.  This is causing me to pause in any purchase, or what I might want to purchase with how it will play with my budget.  In the end it will save me money in the long run, I just need to keep that in mind when I do my purchases.

So hopefully I can use my personal control with speculation of singles, and I can split that last 50% into two buckets.  Single speculation and older sealed product.  Like we all see in the market now, they are over printing the sets, and people are starting to collect more by holding sealed product more than before.  This is double edged from a collector standpoint.

Pre-2012 players were opening everything for the singles, and not really paying attention to holding booster boxes for future gains.  Now people are picking up extra product to hold on to for future gains.  I think this is worse for a collector than the over printing.  With over printing, distributors would be the main holders of the product, and could control the market and prices much better.  With more holders of the product, the market will be more accurate to the supply and demand streams, but that will cause the prices for sealed product to be at a much lower price, for a much longer time. More people will have more of the product, trying to make money off of booster boxes just collecting dust.

This is why it is so important to try and get the out of print boxes that are pre-Scars of Mirrodin block.  And that is why it is so important for me to have personal control when it comes to speculation and picking up singles here and there.  Also remember, I still need to fill out the standard sets when they rotate out.

So with those parameters, I should be able to save 50% of the budget for at least 2 years before the sets rotate out, and then pick up the needed cards at a discount.  Also, I can spend some cash on cards that are rotated out, and I feel could have a jump in 5 years to make a gain on those, but also saving up for older sealed product.

This is all managed by personal control.  I could blow my load this year, and spend that other 50% on speculations, but then it is cutting into my post 2 year wait to pick up all the rotated cards, and I would not have anything left over for older sealed.  Considering that most older sealed is over $200, I still need to save up cash this first year so I don't blow my load again, removing my kitty and emptying my budget too soon.

So this blog is all about personal control.  Not spending too much too fast on the shiny objects in front of me, and sticking with the budget that is already proving I can still reach my goals with a little patience.  I am hoping to start picking up some older sealed product after the Fall release.

So far so good this year, and I will keep updating the blog with my progress with this plan.