Iconic Masters

So this happened...

I ended up picking up 2 cases again because for some reason I just cant go with less than 2 cases...  I do have to say I should have just went with 6 boxes, but ABU games had a pre-order for $189.99 per box and I could not pass that up.  I ended up picking up a case from ABU and my LGS, who sold them to me for $205.00 a box.  I am really just going to go with 6 boxes next time.

So my cost basis for the set is $761.99 and $879.66.  I have only opened up the boxes I got from the LGS and from that I am only missing 7 cards.  With that, I did not get a lot for trade bait, but considering the position I am now, I don't need a lot for trade.  With the way CardSphere is going, I am able to monazite a lot of my bulk into cash waiting to move into sealed product.

Total after opening: $1434.01
Mythic Rares: $442.81
Rares: $584.39
Uncommon: $159.51
Common: $225.24
Token: $22.06

Complete Set
Mythic Rare: $172.96
Rare: $246.89
Uncommon: $57.50
Common: $19.64
Token: $6.44

Trade
Mythic Rare: $0.00
Rare: $217.29
Uncommon: $68.26
Common: $161.29
Token: $15.62

So from what you can see, the complete set pieces I got is around $503.43, so in reality we got almost a complete set and $930.58 in trade.  Now I know you are adding up the amounts and saying my math is totally wrong.  Well here is why sometimes it is worth opening up packs.

Pulled out this Foil Mishra's Bauble!  Not sure how long this card will keep it's value considering that it is a single card in a single top tier deck.  With all the product that is getting opened, I don't see it holding much value.  The price is around $15 right now at the release weekend.

This is a pretty decent rare that I pulled with foil.  It is sitting around $15 as well.

OOOoooooOOooooohhh!  Sexy time!  This was pulled from one of my first boxes, and I was really happy to get it.  Considering that I just traded away my Modern Masters copy away, this was a good replacement in the trade binder.  Right now it is sitting around $34.

And this beast!  I pooped a little when I saw it.  I was really just hoping to pull one of these non-foil for the complete set, but in getting this as a bonus is just pure value.  I have it up for trade, but I am not moving it outside of ABU cards.  It is one of those pulls that I just don't care how long it sits in my binder.  Current value: $167.00.

Foil
Mythic Rare: $269.85
Rare: $120.21
Uncommon: $33.75
Common: $44.31

So in total, based on my spreadsheet I am showing $468.12 in foil cards.  These cards are all value.  Now my pricing is a bit off because I don't use API's to get prices, but just use the current price and multiply by 3 to get the foil price.  It normally is pretty close, but it is not accurate at all.

From all this data you can see that the real value in the set is going to be the rare slot.  I really think it is a design standard moving forward, and WoTC is putting most of the value in these sets are going into the rare slot.  We saw it in the previous Modern Masters set as well with the Zendikar fetch lands.

I am going to be getting a second case in the mail at some point, but I am on the fence to opening it.  As of right now, I would only need to spend $83.86 to fill out my set, and there is no guarantee that I will be opening the cards I need.  This also sets up why I will only be getting 6 boxes of the masters sets moving forward.  I just buy too much for no good reason.

Also, this is the first set that is available to be purchased from a big box store.  Target, Walmart, and who know what other stores.  I don't like this at all.  With forcing all the LGS with needing to pick up these boxes, and pushing these packs into big box stores, I can only assume they printed the crap out of this set, and there is more of this set than any Master set.

I will not be picking up anymore of these packs, and I will also be waiting for next year to pick up the cards I still need.  I am pretty sure this set will be out in force for the secondary market.  There is a small chance that this set will be like the previous Un-sets, and there could be a win for long time holders.  The chance that the desire to own or open any of these packs is so low right now, and the fact WoTC is flooding the market with product, there is a pretty good chance that these will end up in the forgotten market.  And in 10+ years, you could see a real value in these boxes.

Again, the flood of product shows me that WoTC is purely pushing product into the market place for a reason, but I don't think it is a money grab.  I honestly think WoTC thought there would be a demand for all these products, and with their lead times in design this is what is happening.  All these sets were in the plans for a long time, and product has been put into print for a while, and now we are sitting at all this stuff being released. 

With every market correction there needs to be a down turn.  This is what is happening, but I do think we are at the tail end of it.  Since they stopped the release of Masterpiece cards, and the pumping of Master sets without any care how they are released, I have a big feeling that 2018 will be a slower year.  I predict that there will be:

3 Expansion sets
1 Core set
1 Master set
2 Duel decks
1 Commander set
1 Anthology set
1 FTV set

Expansion sets will be released because of the new game design, with the second Ixalan set, and 2 new non-block sets.  We will see that Core set coming back because of the huge mistakes of 2016.  I really think that we are going to go down to 1 Master set after Iconic Masters and how much they just don't care about the set.  I also think that Master sets will be less than what we have seen within the last couple years.  Duel decks need to keep getting release, but they could stop, I just see them as really good beginner decks.  I could not see them ever pulling back on Commander, just because the player base is so high with that type of play in the causal market.  I also think that after Commander Anthology they will stop putting out the Anthology sets for a while.

The Conspiracy and Un-sets are no longer going to get released.  I also think that with the failure of Explore Ixalan and Archenemy sets, they will stop those.  It is just too familiar to Beat Down and Battle Royal, two single box releases that were games within themselves.  I just don't see a market for it, and people like cracking packs.

I do have to say, I have been playing Planechase recently, and I really like that format.  I could see them trying to release new games like this, they are good ideas but people just don't want to pick them up.  I think the only reason Archenemy, Planechase, and Commander are worth anything is because they were originally released with cards you can only find in those box sets.  The reason other box sets are failing is because it is just reprints of garbage no one wants.

I could see them getting rid of From the Vault sets, and putting in Masterpiece type cards in the buy-a-box promo packs they seem to be high on.  With the black Friday packs when you buy a box, I can see them putting special cards in those packs in order to sell more boxes.

I can only hope that WoTC is done with the flood, and we can get back to products with a normal release and get away from all these products that does not really bring anything to the game.  I just hope they go back to the old gift boxes, and only put it out in the fall like it should be released.