That is right, there is a card count on this one! So take note of the date, and what is going to be talked about in this blog. Also take note, that I am mainly a collector of Magic the Gathering cards, but as a means to elevate my purchasing power to get the items I need, I have from time to time speculated on cards based on their playability. Basically, I will pick up cards that I think will increase in value at some point based on what that card can do.
Now, I also had collected based on rarity. If you recall back in the day I started with the Vintage / Legacy side of things because of the scarcity of cards out there, I wanted to pick up all the older cards first because the prices were still low, and I only assumed that the cards would increase in value. In no way was that a prediction of what is occurring at this moment in time.
Right now, in the Magic the Gathering market, it is a fucking shit show. I can say that I assumed that this shit show was going to happen at some point in time, and values of older small print run cards would go up by a lot. I cannot say that the point in time was going to be 2017 and the prices were not anywhere close to what is showing up right now. I mean, I figured that a Power Artifact from Antiquities would go from $15 to maybe $30, not $15 to Ninety fucking three dollars!
I would like to add that with the current market trends in older Reserve List cards, short term speculators will be losing their ass. I feel that if you are a true collector and are looking for the card in your collection, and plan to hold the card for 10+ years, you should see a return on your investment. But then, I did just watch an HBO documentary on an Andy Warhol "Brillo Box", where the first owner paid $1000.00 for it, and it had just recently sold for $3.2 million dollars.
Same concept, rare pop culture item, with specific properties. Add some time and boom crazy prices! With all these very rare and low printed cards, in an unregulated market, we could be seeing the same thing happen. Like those old comic books that are found as insulation for homes built in the 40's and 50's. The only reason the Brillo box went for such a high price, because the availability of the piece was considered a once in a lifetime chance.
The item was bid up to such high prices because there were no other ones out there to purchase. That is what is happening right now to the older ABU and AAL sets. ABU had been first to the game because of the nostalgia of those first core sets, but it was only a matter of time before the AAL sets were to follow. And what we are seeing right now is a removal of all those products from the market by collectors and speculators.
The true collectors that have removed the cards from the market did so long ago. Those were the folks who held onto their precious cards for their collections and have no intention of putting them back into the market. You might see them become available when the owner has hit a ruff patch in their lives, but for the most part those cards are never going to circulate again.
Speculators on the other hand, are the ones that are picking up all these cards to remove them from the market on purpose for monetary gains. They see that at some point the scarcity of these cards will bring them value. Like the Brillo box, the scarcity and once in a lifetime opportunity is what they are betting on.
Call it what you like, but they will be right in the end with those ABU and AAL cards. There are kids that played with those cards way back when, or heard about the glorious power of the Power 9, and those kids will grow up. They will be flush with disposable income and want to relive that childhood memory, or finally have the financial means to buy that Black Lotus. Think I am wrong? You are reading this blog, but would you ever buy a Harley Davidson motorcycle? I am pretty sure you would drop some cash for some Power 9 cards if you could.
And that is the bet. The bet that the popularity of the game that so many kids love, growing up and finally having the means to purchase something that was unattainable when they were younger. They are buying into the memories of those kids, the dreams and wishes. Just like Comic books, or baseball cards, or even old currency. It has been going on for decades, and the bet is that it will continue into the future.
I am not saying that the cards will be worth $3.2 Million dollars, but it will have a higher price tag then where they are being removed from the market right now. And I am not saying every kid that used to play will want to spend thousands of dollars on cardboard, but the ones that do will have more than enough means to do so, and in the end all you really need is a small percentage of folks to have those means.
There is a chance that this hobby will turn into classic cars, or paintings. There is a chance that a perfect 10 Alpha Black Lotus will fetch millions of dollars. Think about it, 20 years ago I bought my first Beta Black Lotus for $300, and right now they are priced out around $17,500 and selling on eBay for around $8,000. This is not just a flash in the pan event. This feels like it will only gain more and more steam as we move forward. People will sell off their collections, and other people will buy them, with the inventories that are currently out there will get dwindled down to nothing and the forces of supply and demand will do what they do. And if someone tries to sell a Beta Black Lotus for $1 Million dollars and someone buys it, then that is the price of the card.
I watch and follow Rudy from Alpha Investments, and also I think the trick is to not think that the Magic cards that are being printed today will ever hold the same value as the ABU and AAL sets. Don't get sucked in thinking that you can make a profit on doing the same thing with the recent sets. And I also agree the sets that were released right after the AAL sets will not hold the value of the first 6 sets as the print runs were just too great.
Anyway, Here we go!
I do want to add that I am pretty lucky to have kept all the cards I do have, and worked on finishing the AAL sets first. I could call myself smart for doing this, but I consider it the same as selling my AT&T stock to buy Google back in 2013, pure luck.
Keep an eye out for the bargain bins at your LGS's and the cards that were considered bulk trash. Looks like the shore is coming up, and when it drains you don't want to be the one without pants.
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