This is coming from a player that started back in 1995'ish era, collected all the things, and played through Urza's block. I stopped buying but I kept playing Magic casually, and then started buying new cards around 2011 when I was traveling a lot with a co-worker, and we needed something to do while we were hanging out after work.
This year what did we see?
Oath of the Gatewatch
Shadows Over Innistrad
Eldritch Moon
Kaladesh
Duel Deck: Blessed vs Cursed
Duel Deck: Nissa vs Ob Nixilis
SDCC: Zombies
From the Vault: Lore
Anthology: Planechase 2012
Commander 2016
Eternal Masters
Conspiracy: Take the Crown
Kaladesh Masterpiece
Gift Box SOI
Gift Box KLD
2016 was the first year for Eternal Masters and the first year we did not have a Core release. I know Magic Origins was considered Magic 2016, but it was released in 2015 and this was the first full year there was no Core set.
2016 was also the first year we saw a Conspiracy and Masters set released at the same time. You have to remember that 2013 we saw the first Modern Masters set, then in 2014 we saw the first Conspiracy set, followed up by 2015 Modern Masters.
Now let's head back to 2007, right before the economic crisis.
2007 - 3 Exp, 1 Core, 1 DD
2008 - 4 Exp, 1 DD, 1 FTV
2009 - 3 Exp, 1 Core, 2 DD, 1 FTV, 4 Planechase, 1 PDS
2010 - 3 Exp, 1 Core, 2 DD, 1 FTV, 4 Archenemy, 1 PDS, 5 Dual of the Planeswalkers
2011 - 3 Exp, 1 Core, 2 DD, 1 FTV, 5 CMD, 1 PDS
2012 - 3 Exp, 1 Core, 2 DD, 1 FTV, 4 Planechase, 1 CMD Arsenal, 1 Gift Box
2013 - 3 Exp, 1 Core, 2 DD, 1 FTV, 5 CMD, 1 MM, 1 Gift, 1 SDCC
2014 - 3 Exp, 1 Core, 2 DD, 1 FTV, 5 CMD, 1 Conspiracy, 1 Gift, 1 SDCC, 1 Modern Deck
2015 - 3 Exp, 1 Core, 2 DD, 1 FTV, 5 CMD, 1 MM, 1 Gift, 1 SDCC, 1 Ant, 1 Masterpiece
2016 - 4 Exp, 2 DD, 1 FTV, 5 CMD, 1 EM, 1 Conspiracy, 2 Gift, 1 SDCC, 1 Ant, 2 Masterpiece
From this I think you can see the over saturation of the MTG world. In less that 10 years we went from 5 different products to pick up, to 20 different products. Granted I am counting each Commander deck as a separate item, and I am including the Gift boxes outside of the expansion set. I am also counting the Masterpieces as a separate set to collect, and that is just because it would cost over $1000 to get the complete sets. I am also counting 2 Masterpiece sets because the second part of the Expeditions were in Oath of the Gatewatch. And if you collected the original sets that are being released as Anthology, you would technically not need to pick those up. But really? As a collector, who would not pick those up?
So let's just say that Gift boxes are a part of the normal set release, and Commander is a single release. That is still a 5 product to 13 product increase. In less than 10 years, WoTC has come out with 8 new products a year for MTG players to keep up with. Let's compare this with another consumer product Apple.
iPod
iPhone
iPad
iMac
Macbook
Airport
AppleWatch
AppleTV
iTunes
Now I know there are other products within each category, but I consider those different products like Deck Builder Toolkits, and Gift Boxes. They are the same product, but in different form. Also, Apple does not release a new version of product every year. You could consider the iPhone as the expansion sets, and the other products like everything else. There might be an update, but there is not one every year for every product. It would be impossible to keep up with that many products within the Apple ecosystem, so why does WoTC think consumers can keep up with everything they are coming out with? I would say Magic the Gathering is the Apple of the CCG world, and if they don't realize they are selling their consumers out of the market, then I don't know what else they are thinking.
Some might say the desire for an updated product is worth more than the product updated itself. That hype for the new of an existing product line is enough to scream for a buyout.
Now I know there are very few Apple collectors, and MTG is a different product, but you can see the insanity of asking your fan base to keep up year over year with these releases. Now, supplementary products like Duel Decks, and FTV are a boon to the MTG economy but WoTC is so concerned with the player base, they are losing site that the value of their product in the aftermarket is one thing that drives new players to the game. Who doesn't like to see that their $15 Snapcaster Mage is now worth over $70?
I know they feel like over saturating the market with product will dilute their product over time, and try and kill off the bubble that was created with the huge influx of new players around 2010, so I can only hope they are seeing the rock rolling down the other way and start killing off products like they did in the early 2000's.
I can only assume that they will stop making certain products, and then refresh them later on, like they are doing with the Archenemy decks. And it does feel like they are trying to get a grip on the foil product itself. From PDS to FTV to Masterpieces. I feel like the standard foil cards and Masterpieces will become the norm, and they won't be doing sets like Arsenal or FTV much longer. That could give them the reprint and premium cards they are looking for.
Now let's look at what might be coming in 2017.
2017 - 4 Exp, 2 DD, 1 FTV, 5 CMD, 1 MM, 2 Gift, 1 SDCC, 1 Ant, 4 Masterpiece, 1 Archenemy
In 2017 we are looking at Big item to look at are the fucking 4 new Masterpiece sets you need to get. With each new Expansion set they are planning on putting Masterpiece cards in them, that would mean that we will technically get a new Masterpiece set in each of those Expansions. That could mean above $4000.00 on foil cards per year because it would be unreasonable to buy enough booster boxes to get a full set of Masterpieces.
In 2017 we are looking to get 22 new products based on the previous categories, and the increase is the 2 new Masterpiece sets. Not too bad, but if you consider the cost basis needed to complete the sets, it pretty much sucks donkey balls.
Now in 2017, that is all based on what news has been released in 2016. We know there will be 4 new expansion sets and 1 Modern Masters set. We also know they plan on doing an Anthology for Commander and releasing a new Archenemy set. We have heard of the new Duel Deck coming out in the spring, so we are assuming that there will be the standard 2 Duel Decks in a year. We are also assuming that they will release a new From the Vault, Commander and 2 Gift Boxes in a year.
Another big assumption is that there will be Masterpieces in the other 3 expansions in 2017.
Let's take a look and see how much all this might cost.
Expansion: 4 * $90 = $360
Expansion: 4 * $90 = $360
Expansion: 4 * $90 = $360
Expansion: 4 * $90 = $360
Duel Deck: $20
Duel Deck: $20
From the Vault: $50
Commander 2017: 5 * 35 = $175
Modern Master: 8 * 240 = $1920
Gift Box: 2 * 45 = $90
Anthology: $165
Archenemy: $65
Masterpiece: 4 * $1000 = $4000
Now if you bought everything on this list, we are looking at $7945 without tax. That is how much WoTC is expecting people to pay next year. And that is also saying that you are only going to buy 4 booster boxes per set on pre-order, so it does not even include Fat Packs or what you might need to fill out playsets.
This projection is much lower than what I am expecting to spend next year, but we will have to wait and see. I normally get 10 booster boxes and 4 fat packs per set, and I also get 2 gift boxes per release because I like the storage boxes. Then I also get an extra commander set of decks, and I normally open one set, and keep one set. I do plan on only getting 1 Archenemy because I never open those since they always reprint cards in those sets in Expansion sets. My big cost will be in the full sets of Masterpieces, and that is what I normally save all my money for.
Why do I crack so many packs? It is because I like the trading fodder to get the stuff I am missing. I have also found that I do get some jumps on bulk that I have collected throughout the years, but considering that I am almost done with my collection, I might not need so much bulk and I can start buying collections to get the extra stuff rather than spending that money on cracking packs.
So yeah, looks like 2017 is going to be expensive, but considering the slowdown on people buying MTG, I am expecting a slowdown on product releases in 2018. I am also predicting that Eternal Masters will not see another release for quite some time and they will stick with Modern Masters as the only bi-yearly released set. I think they will keep up with Conspiracy sets, but just not sure how much of a runway those types of set will have. I think the Masterpiece sets will continue, and WoTC will look to do reprints of much needed cards that way instead of Eternal Master sets.
